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New York 19^th Congressional District is located north of New York City and is composed of parts of Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester Counties. It is currently represented by John Hall, a progressive Democrat, who was sworn in the 110^th Congress in 2007.The geographic make-up is very diverse, from the New York City suburb Westchester to the countryside of Orange County. The total population is 626,945. 84% of the population is urban while 16% is rural. Median household income is $65,869 (the median household income in the US in 2000 is $44,853), and more than half of the households fall into the income bracket between $50,000 and $120,000. Poverty rate is around 6%. [1]

The present 19th District was the 21st District prior to the 1990's, and prior to that was the 25th District. In the 70s, the district included all of Dutchess and Putnam, and parts of Columbia, Ulster and Westchester. In the 80s, the district included all of Putnam and parts of Dutchess, Orange and Westchester. In the 90s, the district included all of Putnam and parts of Dutchess, Orange, Rockland and Westchester. [2]

The district has seen a rapid growth in household income and reduction in poverty in the 90s. In 1990, the district had a median household income of $31,489, below $39,679, which was the median household income in the US in 1991. Over half of the households’ income fell in the $15,000 to $50,000 bracket. Poverty rate was around 10%. [3] Now the district has grown from a combination of backward outskirt of New York City and rural farming counties to a middle-class suburban area, as middle-class families moved upward in search of affordable housing.

The major issues in local politics are mostly those that middle-class families typically value, including fiscal responsibility, tax fairness, affordable education and healthcare, and the environment. Veteran issues and infrastructure building are also important.

The district is considered historically Republican. Throughout the recent history the district has had more Republicans than Democrats. [4] Hamilton Fish, Jr., a leader of the moderate wing of the Republican party, served as the representative from 1969 through 1995, re-elected to the twelve succeeding Congresses. He dropped out of the 1994 race due to cancer, and was succeeded by Republican Sue Kelly. [5]

Sue Kelly signed the Contract with America, a Republican effort in 1994 to “win Congress back for the people” and to reform the government. The Contract for America was a list of actions the Republicans would take if they were elected to majority in Congress. It included measures intended to make the government operations more transparent and hold the government more fiscally accountable. [6] It was allegedly well received among the electorate, and some attributed it to helping secure a decisive victory for the Republicans in the 1994 elections. Others argued that the Contract with America had little influence because it was introduced too late in the campaign and Exit polls showed that a majority of voters had not even heard of it. [7]

Since her election in 1994, much the same as her Republican predecessor, Sue Kelly found no real challenges to her re-elections. From 1998 to 2004, her votes had consistently exceeded 60% of total turnout. [8] Sue Kelly had also been much more successful in raising fund for her campaign than her challengers, as the graph below shows her spending in recent elections compared to that of her challengers. [9]

Source: Opensecret.org

To draw the large middle-class votes, candidates in this district must publicly identify with middle-class images, values and ideals. In 2000, after Democrat Larry Otis Graham declared challenge, he attacked Sue Kelly on grounds that she received most campaign funds from special interest groups and she had done little about education and healthcare to service the district. Sue Kelly responded that she was down in Washington, working for the people of her district and could not attend the debate. Kelly’s campaign denied all the charges and rebutted that Graham describe himself as “elite” before running in election, and the whole debate turned into a contest of “Who is more middle-class”. Unsurprisingly, Sue Kelly with overwhelmingly more campaign funds and more congressional experience won re-election. [10]

Rather unchallenged in her home district, Sue Kelly could safely spare more time on legislation in Washington D.C, which gained her more power over her congressional career. A 2007 survey of congressional power and effectiveness by the nonpartisan Knowlegis company shows that prior to her retirement, Rep. Kelly was among the 100 most powerful lawmakers in the 435-member House. The survey also ranked Kelly as the second most powerful congressperson in the New York delegation. [11] In her 2006 campaign for re-election, she made her track record of having authored, written or sponsored important tax reform, environmental, infrastructure bills a centerpiece in her campaign. On her campaign website, statistics of the amount of funds she had brought back to her constituents in different counties abound. [12]

In 2006, with the war in Iraq dragging on with billions of taxpayer’s money and the economy woes continuing, President Bush’s approval rates took a toll. Public opinion of the Republican controlled Congress was no higher, with leadership scandals tainting the credibility of a group of Republican leaders.  [13]The voters decided to punish the Republicans for not doing a fair job. In 2006 midterm election, the Democrats swept out Republicans from many seats in both the House and the Senate. In the House, Democratic seats increased from 201 to 233, while Republican seats decreased from 229 to 201. In the Senate, Democratic seats increased from 44 to 51, while Republican seats decreased from 55 to 49. The Democrats regained control of both houses of the Congress for the first time since 1994. [14]

In 2006 congressional race, John Hall ran a successful campaign against incumbent Sue Kelly by linking her image closely to that of President Bush, who has become very unpopular among middle-class voters for running huge budget deficit resulting partly from the war in Iraq. John Hall made national security and the war in Iraq the dominant issues of his campaign as a tactic to marginalize Sue Kelly. [15] Also John Hall jumped on the chance of the Mark Foley scandal and attacked Sue Kelly on her connection to the case, which Sue Kelly avoided to talk about and she was even absent from a TV debate with John Hall. Through those tactics, John Hall aimed at undermining Sue Kelly’s support among the middle-class voters by shifting the dominant conflict to the war in Iraq and the Republican leadership scandal, which was Sue Kelly’s Achilles’ heel, and away from other local concerns that usually values power and experience, which Sue Kelly had. [16]

In terms of 2006 campaign finance, Sue Kelly’s top contributors were largely from Financial/Insurance/Real Estate industries and conservative leadership PACs, 36% and 10% respectively. John Hall’s major contributors were Democratic campaign committee and labor unions.  In order to secure enough funding, John Hall had to convince party leaders and donors in Washington that the race was competitive enough to merit a substantial investment of time and money, by making the race about national rather than local concerns such as the War in Iraq and Republican corruption scandals. It was a strategy used by Democratic challengers across the country. Even so, Sue Kelly raised 35% more funds and spent 56% more funds than John Hall did in this election. [17]

The result was that John Hall narrowly defeated Sue Kelly with 6,000 votes, ultimately won the election with 51% of the votes. John Hall received roughly the same number of votes as Sue Kelly’s previous Democratic challengers, but votes for Sue Kelly dramatically decreased by more than 80,000 compared with 2004 election. In fact, it was the first time since her first election in 1992 that total votes for her dropped below 100,000. John Hall carried Westchester and Orange counties, although losing to Kelly in Putnam, Dutchess and Rockland counties. [8]

The New York 19th congressional district election for the 111th Congress will be held on November 4, 2008. As a freshman Democrat in Congress in a historically Republican district, the race is sure to garner national attention. The Presidential election this year will further compound the interest.

John Hall’s chance of re-election depends on his conservative challengers’ tactics. If ideological debate about whether to continue the war on Iraq becomes the dominant issue, John Hall’s conservative challengers do not stand much chance, since even a Republican incumbent as experienced as Sue Kelly had no advantage in this debate.  If rather, his challengers raise doubts over John Hall’s effectiveness as a legislator in promoting the middle-class interest, there might be a story to tell. Despite his well-maintained image of spokesman for the middle-class, John Hall is going to face the challenge of proving that he is not only an inspiring speaker, but also can bring home results. Given his freshman status, John Hall could compensate for his lack of experience and power by spending more time in the home district and demonstrating a good understanding of his constituents’ demands and concerns.

This is what John Hall has prepared to do. During his freshman term, John Hall consistently served the interest of the middle class. The Drum Major Institute for Public Policy, a middle-class think tank, has awarded John Hall a grade of "A-Plus" on "The MiddleClass.org 2007 Congressional Scorecard" for his voting record during his first year in Congress.  Based on his voting record and co-sponsorship of legislations dealing with middle-class issues from health care, college affordability, to free trade, John Hall has consistently maintained a strong pro-middle-class stance. [18]

Among other tax fairness issues, the alternative minimum tax stands out as a single biggest concern of the middle-class. The Alternative Minimum Tax, or AMT, was created to prevent the wealthiest Americans from using loopholes to circumvent federal taxes.  But since the failure of a federal tax increase to adjust AMT for inflation in 1993, the AMT has ballooned to affect middle-class families. The Congress has passed tax relief for middle-income taxpayers in recent years, but if the tax relief expires and is not made permanent, the AMT will spike to affect millions of middle-class families. The Hudson Valley is disproportionately affected by the AMT.  The district was the 19th most heavily affected congressional district by the AMT in 2004, and only rose to the 13th in 2008, affecting over 103,000 families in the district. Westchester, Rockland and Putnam Counties all fall in the top 0.2% of counties in the nation most affected by the AMT while Orange and Dutchess Counties fall in the top 2%, in terms of the number of taxpayers affected. [18] [19]

In 2006, Sue Kelly supported the Tax Relief Extension Reconciliation Act, which retained reduced taxes on capital gains and dividends, as well as extended tax relief for a year to decrease the number of people affected by the AMT. [20] In 2007, John Hall supported a similar one-year extension of the AMT relief. Also John Hall introduced Family Tax Relief Act, in an attempt to make permanent the tax relief of AMT for the middle-class. [18]

Environmental issues are also important in the district’s politics. Residents worry about the water quality in Hudson River as development projects go rampant. Also there is considerable awareness of global warming in the district. When Sue Kelly was the incumbent, a conservative Republican as she was, she took a quite liberal stance on environmental issues. Actually she was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters, an environmental advocacy group, which gave her score of 92%, the highest among any Republican Member of Congress in 2006. [11]

In particular, the Indian Point nuclear plant is under the spotlight of local politics, as residents and environmental activists have been increasingly concerned about the plant. Indian Point Energy Center is an aged 3-unit nuclear power plant located on the east bank of Hudson River, 24 miles north of New York City. Twenty million people live within a 50 mile radius of Indian Point, and the plant is in an area of high seismic risk and on the flight path of the 9/11 terrorist hijacked airplanes. There is considerable controversy about the plant's future. Although it is designed with seismic consideration and demonstrations show that terrorist attacks will not be able to breach the containment vessel, the local residents and environmental groups are worried about radioactive contamination. Also there are environmental groups opposing a closure of the plant because they are more concerned about greenhouse gas emissions, which the nuclear plant has considerably reduced. [21]

In 2005, Sue Kelly took a stance on the Indian Point issue quite unusual for a conservative Republican. She was critical of the plant’s recent problems, including repeated malfunctions of warning sirens, a small but steady leak of radioactive water from Unit 2's spent-fuel pool, and the unpopular evacuation plan approved by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Many of her constituents, however, wrote to newspapers expressing dissatisfaction with her just putting “watchful eyes on the plant” and demanded more action from her against the plant, such as pushing for legislation requiring an independent safety assessment.  [22]

In March 2008, Nuclear Regulatory Commission held a public hearing regarding the re-licensing of Indian Point, part of a multiyear process to determine whether the reactors should be given a 20-year extension of the licenses. Officials from Entergy, the operator of Indian Point, said they were confident their licenses will be renewed, as the N.R.C had never rejected a license renewal in its history. Riverkeeper, an environmental group that had been in the forefront of the movement to close Indian Point, was pessimistic in its lobbying efforts in the hearings as its lawyer claimed the N.R.C to be a captive agency by the nuclear power industry. [23]

John Hall has been outspoken about the nuclear issues. In 1980, he organized the No Nukes concert in New York City. He was involved with Mid-Hudson Nuclear Opponents, who successfully fought the locating of a nuclear power plant on the Hudson River in Greene County. During his campaign, John Hall also repeated his call for the closure of the Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant.  In 2007, Hall, along with several other House members and Senators, has co-sponsored a bill requiring the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform an independent safety assessment of Indian Point before granting a license renewal, though it never made it to the floor. [23] [24]

John Hall did demonstrate a good amount of effort on all the fronts of local politics, including environment, sustainable energy, tax fairness, veterans, heath care and education. He is well-prepared to run for re-election on account of his thorough understanding of the needs of his constituents.  This is typical of a freshman House member who must gear his early congressional career toward re-election in favor of power.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bibliography

[1]   2000 US Census

www.census.gov

[2]   Wikipedia: New York’s 19^th Congressional District

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_19th_congressional_district

[3]   1990 US Census (Data CD-ROM)

[4]   State Election Enrollment

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/portal/page?_pageid=35,1,35_8301:35_8333&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

 [5] Wikipedia: Hamilton Fish IV

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_Fish_IV

[6]   The Contract with America: Implementing New Ideas in the U.S.

http://www.heritage.org/Research/PoliticalPhilosophy/HL549.cfm

[7]   "Contract with America" was "effective ... in bringing Republicans to power"

http://mediamatters.org/items/200610210001

[8]   Election Statistics

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/index.html

[9]   Sue Kelly Congressional Campaign Finance

www.opensecret.org

[10] Rivals for Congress Debate Who's More Middle Class

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9906EEDE153EF931A15753C1A9669C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=2

[11] Wikipedia: Sue W. Kelly

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sue_W._Kelly

[12] 2006 Sue Kelly Campaign Site

http://web.archive.org/web/20060504080858/www.suekellyforcongress.com/issues.asp

[13] Gallup Review: The Midterm Election

http://www.gallup.com/poll/22597/Gallup-Review-Midterm-Election.aspx

[14] Democrats Retake Congress

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/

[15] 2006 John Hall Campaign Site

http://web.archive.org/web/20070110225935/www.johnhallforcongress.com/node/38

[16] Wikipedia: John Hall

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hall_(New_York)

[17] Sue Kelly & John Hall 2006 Congressional Campaign Finance

www.opensecret.org

[18] John Hall Official House Site

johnhall.house.gov

[19] IRS Data Reveal Some Congressional Districts Hit Harder by Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) than Others

http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/2131.html

[20] Sue Kelly on Tax Reform

http://www.ontheissues.org/NY/Sue_Kelly_Tax_Reform.htm

[21] Wikipedia: Indian Point

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Point_nuclear_power_plant

[22] The Reactor, the Pol and Her Public

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/27/nyregion/nyregionspecial2/27wekell.html

[23] A Hearing on Indian Point That Struggles to Be Heard

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/16/nyregion/nyregionspecial2/16indianwe.html?_r=1&n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/Organizations/N/Nuclear%20Regulatory%20Commission&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin

[24] John Hall Bio

http://www.congress.org/bio/id/51193